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MOSLER'S LAW: There is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large increase in public spending cannot deal with it.

Archive for the 'Published' Category


2008-09-04 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 6th September 2008


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Karim writes:

  • Initial claims jump 16k to 445k (4wk avg 439k from 444k)
  • Continuing claims rise 15k to 3435k (4wk avg 3400k from 3367k)
  • A correction from the impact of the extended benefits program would have seen initial claims drop to the 400-425k range (as was expected)
  • This increase and a new cycle high in continuing claims suggests some renewed labor market weakness and adds to downside risks to upcoming NFP reports
  • Unit labor costs for Q2 revised from unch to -0.5% and productivity from 3.5% to 4.3%. These numbers are volatile, but at the margin, the Fed will welcome these revisions as they relate to its inflation outlook.

Yes, and they also show that a share of the job losses were attributable to ‘efficiency gains’ rather than macro weakness (though the two are related) meaning economic potential is firming. This is the ‘classic benefit’ of a slowdown.

  • ISM Non-Mfg headline continues to meander around 50 (rises from 49.5 to 50.6)
  • Prices paid drops from 80.8 to 72.9; employment weakens further, from 47.1 to 45.4
  • Orders up 2 points, export orders down 3pts
  • Labor department official states claims data this week were a ‘clean read’, but that next week’s number will be effected by the Gustav evacuation
  • Trichet says Euro economy in an ‘episode of weak activity’ and that M3 data is overstating monetary expansion as credit growth is moderating. States ECB especially focused on wage growth, but when asked if he agrees with Board member Stark on seeing ‘broad-based’ second round effects, says only seeing ’some second round effects’. Seems like ECB wants to see weak growth become entrenched and wage demands to moderate before entertaining rate cuts-i.e., unemployment needs to rise further.

US Economic Releases

ADP Employment Change (Aug)

Survey -30K
Actual -33K
Prior 9K
Revised 1K

 
Continuing its long, lazy trend lower, but not recession levels yet.

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ADP Employment Change MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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ADP TABLE 1 (Aug)

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ADP TABLE 2 (Aug)

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ADP TABLE 3 (Aug)

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ADP ALLX (Aug)

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Very high number. Shows the higher GDP is being sustained by fewer workers.

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.5%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Nice downtick. Domestic labor costs aren’t pushing up prices yet.

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Productivity TABLE 1 (2Q F)

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Productivity TABLE 2 (2Q F)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 30)

Survey 420K
Actual 444K
Prior 425K
Revised 429K

 
Keeps working its way higher after the extended benefit program was initiated, though the 4 week average is a touch lower.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 29)

Survey 3423K
Actual 3435K
Prior 3423K
Revised 3429K

 
Not looking good and also not sure how much this is influenced by the extended benefits program.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Aug 30)

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Aug)

Survey 49.5
Actual 50.6
Prior 49.5
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected.

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ISM TABLE (Aug)

 
Employment and export orders down some, while prices paid still very high.

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ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.5%

 
Not great, but not falling apart.

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ICSC TABLE (Aug)


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Posted in Currencies, Daily, Oil, Published | No Comments »

FT: Letter to the editor

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 22nd July 2008


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Published letter to the editor in FT.

Expect public-sector deficits and oil prices to go on rising

by Prof Philip Arestis, Dr John McCombie and Mr Warren Mosler.

Sir, Public-sector deficits and crude oil prices will probably both continue rising. Chris Giles’ reports, “Treasury to reform Brown’s fiscal rules” and “Treasury sees storm clouds gathering” (July 18), recognise the inevitability of growing deficits due to economic weakness while also implying public-sector deficits are per se a “bad thing”.

What the articles fail to appreciate are three dimensions to the argument: the first is that public-sector deficits do not present a solvency issue, only an “inflation” issue. Second, public-sector deficits equal total non-government (domestic and foreign) savings of sterling financial assets and are the only source of non-government accumulation of sterling net financial assets. Third, public-sector deficits provide the net financial equity to the non-government sector that supports the private-sector credit structure.

It is the case that the public-sector deficit will increase in one of two ways. The “nice” way would be pro-actively with sufficient tax cuts or spending increases (depending on one’s politics) that support demand at desired levels. The “ugly” way is from a slowing of demand that reduces tax revenues and increases transfer payments. If, instead, the government tries to suppress the current deficit with any combination of tax increases or spending cuts, the resulting accelerated slowdown of the economy will then increase the deficit the “ugly” way.

In any case, the current “inflation” is the result of Saudi Arabia acting as swing producer as it sets the oil price at ever-higher levels and then supplies all the crude demanded at that price. Our institutional structure then passes these prices through the entire economy over time, and there is nothing interest rates or fiscal policy can do to change these dynamics.

The ability to set crude prices can only be broken by a sufficiently large supply response, such as in the early 1980s when net supplies increased by more than 15m barrels per day, helped considerably by the US deregulating natural gas production, which allowed substitution away from crude oil products.

In sum, the deficit will go up either the nice way or the ugly way, as it always does when markets work to grant the private sector the desired net financial assets, which can come only from government deficit spending. “Inflation” will continue higher as long as the Saudis remain price-setter and continue to post ever-higher prices to their refiners.

Philip Arestis,
University Director of Research,
Cambridge Centre for Economic and Public Policy

John McCombie,
Director,
Cambridge Centre for Economic and Public Policy

Warren Mosler,
Senior Associate Fellow,
Cambridge Centre for Economic and Public Policy,
University of Cambridge, UK


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Posted in Articles, Inflation, Oil, Published | No Comments »